Égypte, l'exception démographique

Abstract

With 79 million inhabitants, Egypt is one of the most populated Arab countries. The majority of its inhabitants live in the Nile delta, and this region has one of the world’s highest population densities.

While the problem of over-population has been a concern of governments for many decades, birth control policies have not succeeded in curbing fertility, which remains at a high level. As one of the few Arab countries whose demographic transition is still not fully completed, despite a decline in mortality, Egypt remains an exception in the rapidly evolving demographic landscape.

Breaking away from standard explanations, the author seeks to elucidate this paradox by suggesting that Egypt is undergoing several demographic transitions. The existence of family planning organizations, the relative tolerance of the religious authorities, the population policies in place and an open approach to the outside world are not sufficient to turn the tide. The reason for this resistance is to be found in the very foundations of Egyptian society – importance of the family, ideal number of children – and at institutional level, in both the economic (labour market, growth) and sociocultural spheres. The importance of marriage, the role of education and the media, and the religious dimension are all powerful forces shaping individual behaviour.

Lying at the heart of this strategic region, Egypt plays a key role in the Middle East and its future demographic prospects represent a major challenge for both the country and the region as a whole.

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